Michael Beckley, associate professor of political science, said on Apr. 10 that the emergence of rising powers on the global stage has stalled, with countries like Russia and China facing significant economic and demographic challenges. Beckley explained that these headwinds may limit their ability to pursue geopolitical power in the future and could increase the risk of instability before they become too weak.
The topic is important because past eras marked by rapidly rising powers led to major conflicts such as world wars and the Cold War. Beckley noted, “The era of rising powers led to a couple of world wars and then the Cold War, so one hope is that without these surging powers, demanding their place in the sun and upending existing balances of power, it might be less contentious.” However, he also cautioned that outcomes remain uncertain.
Beckley described how his focus on what he calls a “stagnant world order” was sparked by observing economic slowdowns, demographic struggles, massive debt burdens, and increasing protectionism—particularly in China but also among other wealthy nations. He pointed out that all major countries now face shrinking or stagnant populations alongside high debt levels.
Discussing military capabilities today compared to previous decades, Beckley observed: “It used to be the United States had a monopoly on precision-guided munitions… but now even the Houthis… have precision-guided missiles and can threaten U.S. aircraft and ships.” He added that established major powers orchestrate systems making it harder for new players to rise due to complex global production networks.
Addressing whether there are benefits from not having new rising powers emerge onto the scene, Beckley reiterated: “The era of rising powers led to a couple of world wars… so one hope is that without these surging powers… it might be less contentious.” Yet he warned about negative consequences as some declining states may act aggressively while they still can—a pattern seen with Russia’s recent actions—and cited growing political polarization linked with sluggish growth in developed democracies.
Looking ahead at U.S. prospects within this stagnant scenario, Beckley acknowledged America’s structural advantages such as geography and resource base but highlighted weaknesses including deepening internal divides: “Its geographic insulation and wealth lead to detachment from global affairs… That tension results in a hollow internationalism.” He concluded there are reasons for both concern about instability among declining states as well as cautious optimism if aging societies become less willing to support military adventurism abroad.
